Rocket programme to cost NKorea 500 mln dlrs: analyst

ROCKET SCIENCE

Facts on NKorea's missile arsenal
North Korea, which has placed a long-range rocket on a launch pad in preparation for blast-off, has for decades now been developing missiles both for what it terms self-defence and as a lucrative export commodity. The hardline communist North has announced it will launch a communications satellite between April 4-8 as part of a peaceful space programme. The United States and its allies say the launch is a pretext to test its longest-range missile, the Taepodong-2, in defiance of a UN resolution. The North's missile programme began in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when it started working on a version of the Soviet Scud-B with a range of 300 kilometres (187 miles). This was tested in 1984 and deployment began later that decade.

Between 1987 and 1992, the North began developing a variant of the Scud-C (range 500 km), as well as the Rodong-1 (1,300 km), the Taepodong-1 (2,500 km), the Musudan-1 (3,000 km) and the Taepodong-2 (6,700 km). It has also tested a solid-fuel missile called the KN-02 (120 km), a version of the Soviet SS-21 which is accurate and road-mobile. The Scud-B, Scud-C and Rodong-1 have all been tested successfully. Daniel Pinkston, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, said Tuesday that he had information from intelligence agencies that the North has assembled nuclear warheads for the Rodong-1, which could target Japan. Missiles of various types can also deliver high-explosive and chemical warheads and possibly biological weapons.

The first and only Taepodong-1 launch took place in August 1998 over Japan. The missile sparked alarm in Tokyo, but the third stage apparently exploded before it could place a small satellite into orbit, according to Pinkston. In September 1999, amid improving relations with the United States, North Korea declared a moratorium on long-range missile tests. It ended this in March 2005, blaming the "hostile" policy of the George W. Bush administration.

The Taepodong-2 was first fired on July 5, 2006, along with six shorter-range missiles, but blew up after 40 seconds. The UN Security Council condemned the 2006 tests and imposed missile-related sanctions. The main security threat is seen as coming from some 800 road-mobile missiles. Of these, about 600 of them are Scuds capable of hitting targets in South Korea, and possibly Japanese territory in some cases. There are another 200 Rodong-1 missiles, which could reach Tokyo. North Korea is thought to have sold hundreds of ballistic missiles to Iran, Iraq, Syria, Pakistan and other countries over the past decade to earn foreign currency, according to a US Congressional Research Service report in 2007. In December 2002, 15 Scuds made by North Korea were seized on a ship bound for Yemen.

by Staff Writers
Seoul (AFP) April 1, 2009
Impoverished North Korea is likely to have spent 500 million dollars on a programme to launch a satellite into orbit, the head of a state-financed think tank in South Korea said Wednesday.

The North has announced it will launch a communications satellite some time between April 4-8, in what the United States, South Korea and Japan see as a disguised missile test.

Nam Sung-Wook, director of the Institute for National Security Strategy in Seoul, based his figure on reported remarks by the North's leader Kim Jong-Il during a summit with then-South Korean president Kim Dae-Jung in 2000.

Kim Jong-Il told the South Koreans his country had spent 200-300 million dollars for a project to put a satellite into orbit in 1998, Nam said.

The North says that first attempt to place a satellite into orbit was a success, an argument largely dismissed by other countries.

"It must have now cost up to 500 million dollars, considering that equipment costs must have risen since then," Nam was quoted as saying by the Yonhap news agency.

The North suffered a famine in the 1990s that killed hundreds of thousands and since then has relied on overseas aid to feed millions of its people. Amid rising tensions over the rocket launch, it has refused further US food aid.

North Korea's food production will fall more than one million tons short of demand this year, Seoul's unification ministry said in February.

earlier related report
NKoreans no longer hiding missile shape: US institute
Commercial satellite imagery suggests North Korea is no longer trying to hide the shape of a suspected missile it plans to launch as early as this weekend, according to a Washington-based arms control group.

"The missile is clearly visible" in a satellite picture taken on Sunday of the launch site, the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) wrote on its website.

"Since the missile is so easily seen in this image versus in imagery over the past several days since March 24, it is likely that North Korea was previously shrouding the missile."

The commercial photos came from the Colorado-based company DigitalGlobe, which provides imagery for Google Earth, US government agencies and other customers.

US intelligence and military officials declined to comment to AFP on the satellite imagery.

North Korea has said it will send up a communications satellite over northern parts of Japan between April 4-8, but the United States and its Asian allies suspect the launch is a cover for testing a long-range ballistic missile test that could hit Alaska.

Pyongyang threatened Wednesday to shoot down any US spy planes if they violate its airspace to monitor the imminent launch, in a statement carried by state radio.

The warning followed accusations Tuesday that US planes had stepped up flights over a northeastern region where the North is preparing the launch.

Previous photos indicated that the rocket's three stages were about equal in length but the latest satellite image showed that was not the case, and that the nosecone was of significant size, said Geoffrey Forden, a research associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

"The first stage takes up about two-thirds of the missile," Forden wrote on armscontrolwonk.com.

"The third stage appears quite short with a fairly large nosecone fairing."

The sophistication of the second stage of the rocket remained unclear, Forden wrote on Sunday.

North Korea has warned that the first booster rocket would likely plunge into the Sea of Japan (East Sea) while the second stage would drop into the Pacific between Japan and Hawaii.

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