Here we are, five years and billions of dollars into President Bush's Vision for Space Exploration, and the new President expects a panel of a ten senior space experts to evaluate the established plan for returning humans to the moon and exploring the solar system beyond Earth's influence.

This activity is going on in parallel with the continued development of Ares I and Orion, and while preparations for the retirement of the space shuttle continue. By August, this panel is to submit its review and recommendations to the President.

It was not surprising that the first public hearing was filled with briefings on several alternative approaches that were not selected by NASA as the winning launcher and spacecraft designs. According to the presenters, every one of the alternatives would have been cheaper, better and faster than Ares I and Orion.

And, NASA continued to defend its selections. All of this is not unexpected. Every alternative offering has been aired before, and rejected by NASA. However, there is one refreshing aspect to the proceedings.

NASA has been forthcoming about its technical challenges in developing the selected launchers and spacecraft. There have been no exaggerated claims of high performance, fast schedule or low cost concerning the current approach.

All in all, NASA engineers have been honest about the progress of their designs. Unfortunately, the Augustine Panel may be little more than a distraction to the ongoing challenges that NASA already faces. With such little time and small staff, it is doubtful the panel can make any valuable recommendations that will dramatically improve the human exploration program.

The most likely outcome seems to be a reaffirmation of the current program with a list of minor suggested high-level programmatic and funding recommendations. For practical and cost reasons, it is probably too late to save the shuttle from retirement. A change from Ares I to another option at this time could result in major schedule delays and cost increases.

A change from Orion to another design seems unlikely at this point. We already know there will be at least a five year hiatus in U.S. human space flight. It is also likely that without a major infusion of additional funding, this hiatus will increase to well beyond five years.

There is little doubt that the U.S. leaves itself vulnerable to competitors and adversaries who will take advantage of the hiatus to weaken the American position as the space leader.

If President Obama is determined to assure continued space leadership, the only practical action is to infuse enough funding into the current human space program to minimize the gap in human flight. This may not be the best solution. But, given the position in which the U.S. finds itself, this seems to be the best of an array of bad alternatives.

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